What the FBI Told Law Enforcement and Not the Public: Threat Intelligence Update
The federal government has been warning law enforcement about elevated Iranian threats inside the United States while the people sitting in your pews have been told nothing.
BLUF
On March 20, 2026, the FBI and the National Counterterrorism Center issued a formal warning about elevated Iranian threat activity inside the United States, specifically naming churches, Jewish congregations, and institutions perceived as pro-Israel as targets. That bulletin was classified For Official Use Only and distributed exclusively to law enforcement. The general public never saw it. Christian Warrior Training has been reporting on this exact threat environment since before hostilities began, which means your security team received this intelligence weeks before federal agencies formalized it, and the people sitting in your pews still have not been told by their government. That gap is precisely why this platform exists.
Key Judgments
Highly Likely: The Government of Iran and its operatives will continue pursuing retaliatory operations inside the United States targeting U.S. officials, Jewish and Israeli institutions, and Iranian dissidents as the military conflict continues.
Highly Likely: Violent extremists inspired by the conflict, including those with antisemitic, anti-U.S., or anti-Israel grievances, will move toward action in the coming weeks as graphic imagery from the conflict continues to circulate.
Likely: Congregations with no direct Israeli or Jewish affiliation will be targeted if they are perceived as supporters of Israel or as allied with U.S. policy.
Unlikely: The GOI will shift from targeted assassination operations to mass casualty attacks against civilian populations, though inspired lone actors present a separate and less predictable risk.
Situation Summary
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched an ongoing campaign of military strikes against Iran, including operations that resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and strikes against Iranian military bases and government facilities. As of early March, the Government of Iran and its proxy forces had conducted retaliatory attacks against U.S. military and diplomatic facilities and personnel in the region, as well as against civilian infrastructure in several countries throughout the Middle East.
The FBI and the National Counterterrorism Center formally acknowledged this elevated threat environment in a law enforcement-restricted bulletin dated March 20, 2026. That document was classified For Official Use Only, meaning it was distributed to government employees and law enforcement partners with a need to know. It was not released to the public. Christian Warrior Training began reporting on the Iranian threat environment to U.S. congregations and security teams well before that bulletin was drafted. That is not said to criticize the FBI. It reflects the reality that private intelligence analysis built for a specific audience and mission can move faster than federal bureaucratic processes. Your team has already received this warning. What this bulletin confirms is that the federal government now agrees with the assessment.
Why This Applies to Your Congregation
Although the FBI and NCTC had not identified a specific threat to the general public as of the bulletin’s release date, they assessed the Government of Iran as posing a persistent threat to U.S. government and military officials, Jewish and Israeli interests, and Iranian dissidents inside the United States.
Jewish congregations and synagogues have been named explicitly as Iranian target categories for years, and that designation does not change with a change in Iranian leadership. Churches that are publicly pro-Israel, that host Jewish-Christian solidarity events, or that are affiliated with organizations perceived as supporting Israel should consider themselves within a potential threat radius. This is not speculation. It is the FBI’s own written assessment.
The FBI and NCTC also expressed concern that violent extremists with a wide range of ideological backgrounds, including those with anti-U.S., anti-Israel, and antisemitic beliefs, may view the conflict as justification for committing violence. Graphic imagery, news of civilian casualties, and statements by Iranian government or religious leaders, or by other foreign terrorist organizations, were identified as factors that could accelerate radicalization and mobilization. The threat landscape is not only trained Iranian operatives. Some are Americans who have been watching the news and are moving toward violence.
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Threat Vectors
Firearms: The FBI documents most GOI attack plots in the United States have involved the potential use of firearms. This is the primary expected method.
Vehicle rammings: Documented in the GOI’s operational toolkit, particularly effective against pedestrian gatherings and parking lot environments.
Stabbing and bladed weapons: A documented method, particularly for attacks requiring concealment prior to approach.
Bombings and arson: Both are confirmed GOI methods; arson is a particular concern for facilities perceived as Jewish or pro-Israel.
Poisoning, strangling, suffocation: Associated with targeted assassination operations rather than mass events.
Inspired lone actors: Domestic violent extremists operating without foreign direction represent a separate threat stream that is less predictable and harder to detect in advance.
Surveillance and pattern-of-life collection: The GOI has historically monitored social media, live streams, map applications, and public event listings to determine target locations, schedules, and security posture. Your congregation’s public-facing digital presence is being used as an intelligence source by people who may intend harm.
Cyber intrusion: Spear-phishing, email spoofing, and voice cloning have been documented as GOI methods to gain access for target surveillance.
Threat Indicators
The following behavioral indicators, when observed alongside other signs of criminal or violent intent, may constitute a basis for reporting or law enforcement action. No single indicator alone is sufficient. Pattern and context determine significance.
Specific verbal or written threats against a physical location or category of target, particularly in connection with ideological grievances or current events
Conducting what appears to be a pre-attack walk-through, including facility entry without attending a service, photographing exterior access points, or asking unusual questions about event schedules and security staffing
Attempts to access sensitive areas of the building or grounds not open to the general public
Individuals who appear to be tracking staff or leadership movement, attendance patterns, or vehicle schedules
Unusual purchase or possession of military or law enforcement-style tactical equipment, including body armor, in a context that raises concern about intent
Online activity posing with weapons alongside statements expressing ideological hostility toward U.S. or Israeli policy or toward Jewish or Christian institutions
Direct communication with or expressed admiration for violent extremist actors or organizations
Recommended Actions
Brief your security team on this threat environment at the next available training session. The conflict with Iran has produced a named, documented threat to Jewish and Israeli institutions inside the United States, confirmed in writing by the federal government.
Elevate exterior security posture during high-attendance services and any event publicly affiliated with pro-Israel causes or that draws media attention.
Review your congregation’s public digital footprint. Assess what your church publishes on social media, livestreams, and event calendars. Determine whether that information serves your security posture or undercuts it.
Contact your local FBI field office to ensure your congregation is in their awareness. Field office contact information is available at fbi.gov/contact-us.
Establish a law enforcement liaison if you do not already have one. This week is the time to make that call.
Report suspicious activity at tips.fbi.gov. For emergencies and immediate threats to life, call 911.
Ensure your team is uniformed and visible at entry points. A visible security presence communicates to anyone conducting pre-attack surveillance that this congregation is not a soft target.
Threat Assessment
Current threat level for Christian congregations in the United States, particularly those affiliated with or perceived as supportive of Jewish and Israeli causes: RED (Critical).
This assessment reflects the confirmed GOI operational interest in U.S.-based targets and the secondary threat from domestic violent extremists actively being radicalized by imagery and statements from foreign actors. The FBI and NCTC have assessed that both threat streams are active and evolving simultaneously. The death of Supreme Leader Khamenei removes a stabilizing chain of command within the IRGC structure and creates conditions where retaliatory operations may be authorized through informal or proxy channels with less oversight than historical operations. That introduces additional unpredictability into an already elevated environment. It is Highly Likely that Iranian state-directed plotting against named U.S. target categories will continue. It is Likely that inspired lone actors represent the more immediate near-term threat to congregations and public gatherings. It is Possible that a congregation with no prior threat history will be selected based on perceived symbolic value. Security posture should reflect all three threat streams.
Biblical Lens
“Go, set a watchman; let him announce what he sees.” — Isaiah 21:6 (ESV)
God did not call his people to be passive in the face of known threats. The watchman’s assignment was not to wait for the attack to begin before sounding the alarm. It was to watch the horizon, recognize what was coming, and announce it in time for the people to act. That is the mandate Christian Warrior Training operates under, and it is the mandate your security team carries every time they step into that role. The federal government confirmed this week what you were already told. The question now is what you do with the information.
If this briefing was useful to your team, leave a comment below and share it with your pastor or security team leader. The people in the pew are counting on someone to be watching. Make sure that someone is prepared.
Thank you Keith. Our team takes to heart these intel briefs and yours. We recently had a very large, sold out Christian concert at our church that was open to the public. We did exactly as you recommended and increased our uniformed visibility at entrances and inside the event. Thank you and God bless you brother.
Keith, I just wanted to say that the recent increase in your output here is absolutely incredible and invaluable. I’m so grateful for all of your subscribers that have allowed you to make this your full-time ministry. You’re more than just a top-rank Sheepdog; you are visibly contributing to the actual Kingdom of God here on earth.
Know one knows when, but it feels closer every day. Stay vigilant, because the enemy is probably pissed with you. You are in my prayers.