Threat Level Holds at HIGH (Orange)
The threat picture has change, and not for the better necessitating us holding at Orange.
BLUF
The Church Security Threat Level holds at HIGH (Orange), Level 4 of 5. We were to re-evaluate our threat level on 01 AUG after the summer threats had passed, but we assess the threat remains. The war with Iran, the proxy targeting that comes with it, and new ISIS and al Qaeda material published in July replace them. The level stays where it is until the intelligence supports moving it, in either direction.
Key Judgments
Highly Likely: The war with Iran continues past the end of August with no negotiation track, and Iranian-aligned proxy activity against Western religious targets continues alongside it.
Highly Likely: Low-sophistication attacks by paid freelancers and lone offenders remain the delivery method, using arson, vehicles, knives, and firearms.
Likely: Proxy target selection continues to key on perceived support for Israel rather than on the religion practiced inside the building, which places supportive churches in the same target set as the synagogues already hit.
Possible: An American church sustains an arson or vandalism attack with a stated tie to the Iran conflict in the near term.
Unlikely: Any organization completes a mass-casualty attack against an American church in the near term.
What Changed
The last posture rested on 2 things: America’s 250th anniversary and the World Cup. Both closed. Recycling expired reasoning to hold a number in place is how a threat level stops meaning anything, so here is what replaced them.
The war with Iran did not end. The memorandum of understanding reached in June was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and close out the conflict. It did not hold. Iran fired on 3 commercial vessels on July 6 and 7, drawing United States strikes in response. As of July 27, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no talks are underway. Al Jazeera is covering the conflict as Phase II, and August 1 was day 21 of that phase. [Sources: Al Jazeera, August 1, 2026; CNN, July 27, 2026]
Both ISIS and al Qaeda produced new material during July. On July 6, ISIS-linked Amaq published a first-half infographic claiming 587 operations and 17 churches burned or destroyed. Indago’s assessment for the week ending July 20 reports that detained Islamic State members in Syria described plans to bomb Christian churches, and places churches on a priority target watchlist across 5 countries. On the al Qaeda side, a pro-AQAP media group launched a new weekly newsletter on July 3 modeled on al-Naba, publishing every Friday.
One point of accuracy. None of that summer material names churches in the United States specifically. Back in April, the press reported that al-Naba had called for burning churches, and after reading the source issue we reported that the call named synagogues. That standard holds now even where a looser reading would strengthen the case. What the summer material establishes is Christians named as a target class and demonstrated church attack planning overseas. That supports Orange. It is not a directive naming any American town.
Why Churches Sit Inside the Iranian Proxy Target Set
This question comes up every time the level moves over something happening between Iran and Israel.
The May 15 federal complaint against a Kata’ib Hizballah commander alleges he tried to pay an undercover FBI agent to bomb or burn a New York City synagogue plus 2 locations in Los Angeles and Scottsdale. Per NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch, the Manhattan target was selected because that congregation supported Israel. Not because Jewish people worship there. Because of the position the congregation takes. [Sources: DOJ complaint, May 15, 2026; ASIS International, May 2026]
Run that standard against your own church. An Israeli flag out front, a support ministry, mission teams, a pastor who preaches on it publicly. By the method those networks actually use, that is not a related target. It is the same one.
The people carrying it out make it worse. Researchers describe a hire-for-cash model using local criminals and young men with no ideological screening. At a June sentencing hearing for a 2024 Toronto synagogue firebombing, the 20-year-old defendant testified he took a contract for $15,000, received $3,000, and said he did not know the targets were Jewish institutions. A man who took an envelope and an address does not check the sign out front.
Threat Assessment
The Church Security Threat Level is HIGH (Orange), Level 4 of 5.
The primary concern is the low-sophistication attack delivered by somebody with no ideological history for anyone to have flagged. Arson at 3:00 a.m., vandalism, a vehicle in the parking lot, a knife at a door. These defeat threat-assessment programs built around identifying radicalized individuals in advance, because the man carrying it out was recruited last week for money.
The secondary concern is the empty building. Most incidents in the European pattern happened overnight against unoccupied structures. Sunday morning posture is not what this threat tests. Lighting, cameras, alarm monitoring, and key control are what it tests.
What holds this at High rather than Critical has not changed. There is no named, time-and-place threat against any particular American congregation, and no Iranian proxy has ever completed a killing of an American on American soil.
Three things ahead deserve attention. The September 11 anniversary. Back-to-school, which puts children’s and youth programming back on a full schedule after the summer break. And the High Holy Days in mid-September, which historically drive a spike in activity against Jewish institutions, and by the targeting logic above that spike does not stay contained to Jewish institutions.
Recommended Actions
Work the overnight picture as hard as Sunday morning. That is where this pattern has actually landed. Walk the exterior after dark and look at it the way a man with a gas can would look at it. Dark corners, unmonitored doors, and anything flammable stored where a stranger can reach it.
Confirm that a real person receives the alarm notification at 3:00 a.m. and knows what to do with it. On most teams that notification fills a mailbox nobody checks.
Know your church’s public profile on Israel. Your team should know whether the congregation sits inside that target set, and most teams have never asked the question.
Walk through an arson discovery at roll call. Who calls, who accounts for people, who keeps the congregation out of the building when they want to run back in after the sanctuary. That conversation takes 10 minutes and it is worth having before the night it is needed.
Keep the parking lot staffed. Everything in the European pattern begins outside.
Biblical Lens
“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.”
Proverbs 22:3, ESV
The prudent man in that proverb is not afraid. He is paying attention. He sees what is in front of him and adjusts, and Scripture treats that as wisdom rather than weakness.
Holding at Orange is the same thing. It is an honest look at a war that has not ended and a targeting method that reaches further than most churches assume. When the picture improves, the level comes down and you will be told why.
If this bulletin was useful, leave a comment and share it with your pastor or your team leader. Stay alert, stay disciplined, and always be carrying.
Copyright © 2026 Keith Graves. All rights reserved.