Threat Intelligence Update: Iran Escalation Indicators
Domestic Church Security Implications if Conflict Expands
PAID SUBSCRIBERS HAVE ACCESS TO A PODCAST OF MY THOUGHTS ON THIS NEW INTELLIGENCE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS UPDATE
Threat Intelligence Briefing: Iran Situation Update
Date: January 13, 2026
Scope: Implications for U.S. churches
Church Alert Level: High Risk of Attack (Orange)
Executive Assessment
The probability of near term U.S. military action against Iran has increased based on tightening diplomatic posture, rising war rhetoric, and observable force protection signaling. This does not automatically translate into a specific, imminent threat to U.S. churches. The primary church relevant risk, if escalation occurs, is a motivated lone actor or small cell acting opportunistically. A secondary risk is directed retaliation through Iranian aligned networks or proxies, which is less likely domestically than regional retaliation, but it is not zero.
Key Judgments
Escalation likelihood is rising. The U.S. State Department is explicitly urging Americans in Iran to leave immediately, and allied governments continue to advise against travel and recommend departure if possible.
No verified, specific threat stream against U.S. churches is present at this time. The current picture supports vigilance, not an alert level increase.
Most likely domestic church threat vector is a lone actor reaction. If the U.S. strikes Iran, online grievance narratives and anger over Middle East events can drive impulsive violence or disruptive incidents.
Iran has plausible proxy pathways. A retired JTTF agent who worked the Hezbollah desk describes Hezbollah as “extremely embedded” in the United States, with established infrastructure and the ability to activate quickly if instructed.
Source Notes
Primary internal source: “Interview With a JTTF Agent Working Hezbollah in America” (Christian Warrior Training, March 7, 2024).
Official travel advisories: U.S. State Department Iran advisory, UK FCDO Iran travel advice, Government of Canada Iran travel advice.
Threat Environment for Churches
Most Likely: Lone actor or small group violence
Motivated by perceived religious or political symbolism, Middle East grievance content, or social media incitement.
Typical outcomes include threats, harassment, vandalism, disruptive confrontations, and in rare cases lethal attacks.
Possible: Demonstrations and spillover disorder
Increased protests can create proximity risk for churches near downtown corridors, government buildings, or known demonstration routes.
Less Likely, High Impact: Directed action tied to foreign aligned networks
The JTTF agent’s core warning is capability and infrastructure. He describes a cell structure, fundraising apparatus, and the ability to activate rapidly if leadership decides it is time.
This remains lower probability than lone actor violence inside the U.S., but it is the reason churches should stay disciplined and observant this week.
Indicators and Warnings
If any of the following appear, I will issue an immediate update and reassess the alert level:
Credible threats that name churches, Christian events, pastors, or Christian institutions.
Repeated suspicious presence at multiple churches, especially photography of entrances, CCTV, children’s areas, or service flow timing.
Online calls that explicitly direct action at churches.
Official bulletins referencing threats to houses of worship or soft targets.
A pattern of coordinated soft target attacks in allied countries consistent with proxy tradecraft.
Operational Guidance for This Week
No new programs. Tighten basics.
Assign dedicated CCTV monitoring during peak arrival and dismissal.
Reinforce approach protocols for suspicious persons. Keep contact calm, direct, and policy based.
Verify radio comms and the 911 call plan, including who speaks to dispatch.
Add timed parking lot scans at start, mid service, and dismissal.
Brief greeters and staff on what to report immediately, including photography, probing questions, and people testing boundaries.
Keep posture visible but not theatrical. Your goal is deterrence and early detection.
Bottom Line
The situation is accelerating. A U.S. Iran escalation could rapidly shift motivation and threat chatter. At this time, there is not enough verified reporting to justify raising the church alert level. Churches should keep services normal, execute disciplined security basics, and watch the indicators that would signal a real change.
