Threat Intelligence Bulletin: Holiday Event Threats and Safety Guidance
A high-level church security intelligence briefing for the holiday season, outlining current threats, likely attack methods, and pre-attack indicators.
Threat Intelligence Briefing
Holiday Church Services and Events
November 24, 2025
Current Threat Level: HIGH – High risk of attack
Prepared for church leaders and safety ministries
Key Judgments
There is no specific, credible threat to any individual church at this time. The overall threat environment remains elevated, so the High level is appropriate for the holiday period.
Holiday services are attractive targets because they are crowded, predictable, and carry strong Christian meaning.
Lone offenders are still the most likely attackers. Motivations may include ideology, personal grievances, mental health issues, or an interest in prior attacks.
The attack methods most likely to be used include firearms, knives, vehicles, and coordinated disruptive actions such as swatting.
Large Christmas Eve services, Christmas Day gatherings, children’s programs, concerts, and New Year’s events present the highest exposure due to crowding and movement in and out of the building.
Holiday Threat Environment
Holiday periods increase the likelihood of violent activity against churches. Offenders view these events as opportunities to cause harm, target Christian gatherings, or gain public attention. Many attackers study past events such as Christmas market attacks, synagogue assaults during high holy days, and violence at New Year celebrations.
This environment applies to churches because holiday services bring large numbers of people into a confined area at predictable times. Services, pageants, and outreach events are advertised publicly, which limits anonymity for the congregation but increases it for hostile actors who blend in as visitors.
Domestic issues also rise during the holidays, including family conflict, separations, and substance use, which can spill into church campuses. These problems can drive both targeted assaults and unexpected disturbances.
Holiday-Specific Risk Factors for Churches
Publicly posted and widely shared service schedules
High attendance, including many visitors who are unfamiliar to the team
Children’s programs that create congestion and long check-in lines
Outdoor events such as candlelight services and nativity displays
Heavy traffic and limited visibility in parking lots
Increased outreach to the homeless and those in crisis
Higher overall emotional stress within the community
Most Likely Attack Methods
Armed individual entering a service with a concealed firearm
Vehicle ramming followed by a kinetic assault, where a vehicle is used to breach or injure, then the attacker moves to firearms or edged weapons
Knife or blunt-force attacks in lobbies, foyers, or children’s ministry areas
Swatting incidents called in during peak services to disrupt worship or create panic
Vehicle ramming directed at outdoor gatherings, parking-lot foot traffic, or candlelight services
Possible but Less Likely Methods
Incendiary devices placed near entrances, displays, or vehicles
Improvised explosives concealed in bags, vehicles, or hidden corners
Hoax bomb threats designed to disrupt or test response patterns
Observed and Expected Pre-Attack Indicators
Repeated drive-bys or vehicles idling during rehearsals and service times
Filming or photographing entrances, cameras, parking patterns, or children’s areas
Individuals testing locked doors or attempting to access restricted areas
People timing ushers or security movements
Clothing choices meant to conceal weapons, such as heavy jackets worn indoors
Sudden interest in weapons or ammunition combined with threatening statements
Direct or indirect comments about making a statement at church or during Christmas
Fixation on previous holiday attacks or violent offenders
Churches should treat any combination of these indicators as a signal to intervene early and contact law enforcement.
Recommended Actions for Churches
Exterior Awareness
Assign trained team members to exterior positions during arrival and dismissal
Watch for unusual parking patterns, occupied vehicles during services, and people lingering without purpose
Stay alert to vehicle acceleration, erratic driving, or attempts to enter pedestrian areas
Entrances and Interior
Maintain visible security at main doors
Keep unnecessary doors locked and monitored
Monitor for oversized bags or unusual clothing that may conceal weapons
Maintain steady communication between sanctuary positions and children’s ministry
Children’s Ministry
Confirm check-in and check-out procedures
Ensure staff know how to request help quickly
Review room lockdown options and escape paths
Congregation Messaging
Keep messaging short and calm
Encourage people to report concerns without creating anxiety
Remind them the safety ministry is active and present
Coordination With Law Enforcement
Share service times with your local agency
Review access points for emergency response
Invite patrol officers to drive through the campus before or during services
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Reporting and Information Sharing
Immediate threats: call 911
Suspicious but non-urgent information: share with the safety ministry lead or designated church contact
Encourage churches in your network to share observations that may affect others
Document any unusual activity and file it for after-action review
Outlook
The higher-risk period extends through New Year’s Eve. Churches should continue to conduct services normally while keeping their teams focused on practical awareness. Consistent presence, steady observation, and prayerful vigilance provide the most reliable protection.
If a specific threat emerges, a separate time-sensitive update will be issued.
Thanks for the update, I always appreciate you and the work you put in keeping us informed. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
Richard…
Great information we can share with our safety teams!