Threat Intelligence Bulletin: Holiday Event Threats and Safety Guidance

A high-level church security intelligence briefing for the holiday season, outlining current threats, likely attack methods, and pre-attack indicators.

Threat Intelligence Briefing

Holiday Church Services and Events
November 24, 2025
Current Threat Level: HIGH – High risk of attack

Prepared for church leaders and safety ministries

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Key Judgments

• There is no specific, credible threat to any individual church at this time. The overall threat environment remains elevated, so the High level is appropriate for the holiday period.

• Holiday services are attractive targets because they are crowded, predictable, and carry strong Christian meaning.

• Lone offenders are still the most likely attackers. Motivations may include ideology, personal grievances, mental health issues, or an interest in prior attacks.

• The attack methods most likely to be used include firearms, knives, vehicles, and coordinated disruptive actions such as swatting.

• Large Christmas Eve services, Christmas Day gatherings, children’s programs, concerts, and New Year’s events present the highest exposure due to crowding and movement in and out of the building.

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Holiday Threat Environment

Holiday periods increase the likelihood of violent activity against churches. Offenders view these events as opportunities to cause harm, target Christian gatherings, or gain public attention. Many attackers study past events such as Christmas market attacks, synagogue assaults during high holy days, and violence at New Year celebrations.

This environment applies to churches because holiday services bring large numbers of people into a confined area at predictable times. Services, pageants, and outreach events are advertised publicly, which limits anonymity for the congregation but increases it for hostile actors who blend in as visitors.

Domestic issues also rise during the holidays, including family conflict, separations, and substance use, which can spill into church campuses. These problems can drive both targeted assaults and unexpected disturbances.

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Holiday-Specific Risk Factors for Churches

• Publicly posted and widely shared service schedules

• High attendance, including many visitors who are unfamiliar to the team

• Children’s programs that create congestion and long check-in lines

• Outdoor events such as candlelight services and nativity displays

• Heavy traffic and limited visibility in parking lots

• Increased outreach to the homeless and those in crisis

• Higher overall emotional stress within the community

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Most Likely Attack Methods

• Armed individual entering a service with a concealed firearm

• Vehicle ramming followed by a kinetic assault, where a vehicle is used to breach or injure, then the attacker moves to firearms or edged weapons

• Knife or blunt-force attacks in lobbies, foyers, or children’s ministry areas

• Swatting incidents called in during peak services to disrupt worship or create panic

• Vehicle ramming directed at outdoor gatherings, parking-lot foot traffic, or candlelight services

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Possible but Less Likely Methods

• Incendiary devices placed near entrances, displays, or vehicles

• Improvised explosives concealed in bags, vehicles, or hidden corners

• Hoax bomb threats designed to disrupt or test response patterns

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Observed and Expected Pre-Attack Indicators

• Repeated drive-bys or vehicles idling during rehearsals and service times

• Filming or photographing entrances, cameras, parking patterns, or children’s areas

• Individuals testing locked doors or attempting to access restricted areas

• People timing ushers or security movements

• Clothing choices meant to conceal weapons, such as heavy jackets worn indoors

• Sudden interest in weapons or ammunition combined with threatening statements

• Direct or indirect comments about making a statement at church or during Christmas

• Fixation on previous holiday attacks or violent offenders

Churches should treat any combination of these indicators as a signal to intervene early and contact law enforcement.

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Recommended Actions for Churches

Exterior Awareness

• Assign trained team members to exterior positions during arrival and dismissal

• Watch for unusual parking patterns, occupied vehicles during services, and people lingering without purpose

• Stay alert to vehicle acceleration, erratic driving, or attempts to enter pedestrian areas

Entrances and Interior

• Maintain visible security at main doors

• Keep unnecessary doors locked and monitored

• Monitor for oversized bags or unusual clothing that may conceal weapons

• Maintain steady communication between sanctuary positions and children’s ministry

Children’s Ministry

• Confirm check-in and check-out procedures

• Ensure staff know how to request help quickly

• Review room lockdown options and escape paths

Congregation Messaging

• Keep messaging short and calm

• Encourage people to report concerns without creating anxiety

• Remind them the safety ministry is active and present

Coordination With Law Enforcement

• Share service times with your local agency

• Review access points for emergency response

• Invite patrol officers to drive through the campus before or during services

  

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Reporting and Information Sharing

• Immediate threats: call 911

• Suspicious but non-urgent information: share with the safety ministry lead or designated church contact

• Encourage churches in your network to share observations that may affect others

• Document any unusual activity and file it for after-action review

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Outlook

The higher-risk period extends through New Year’s Eve. Churches should continue to conduct services normally while keeping their teams focused on practical awareness. Consistent presence, steady observation, and prayerful vigilance provide the most reliable protection.

If a specific threat emerges, a separate time-sensitive update will be issued.