Emerging Threat Indicators Affecting Public Gatherings

🔴 An intelligence assessment update about incoming threats that can impact churches in the U.S. and the West.

Intelligence Assessment Update

Subject: Emerging Threat Indicators Affecting Public Gatherings
Assessment Type: Intelligence Assessment Update
Assessment Level: Orange-High Risk of Attack
Date: December 15, 2025

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I. Key Intelligence Drivers

A. California New Year’s Eve Bomb Plot (Disrupted)

Federal authorities recently disrupted a bombing plot in California involving multiple suspects preparing improvised explosive devices intended for use at public locations during New Year’s Eve celebrations. The plot was interrupted prior to execution. SOURCE

This case demonstrates active intent to conduct mass casualty attacks against public gatherings tied to predictable, high attendance events. It confirms that planning for attacks during the holiday period is ongoing and should be factored into current situational awareness.

B. Director of National Intelligence Statement

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard recently stated that intelligence analysis conducted by the National Counterterrorism Center has identified approximately 2,000 Afghan nationals who entered the United States during the 2021 Afghanistan evacuation and are now assessed as having ties to, or being known or suspected terrorists. SOURCE

This assessment reflects current intelligence holdings and represents an official acknowledgment at the national level. The individuals referenced are already inside the United States. The statement provides important context for evaluating recent violent incidents and emerging threat indicators affecting public gatherings, including churches.

C. Australia: Bondi Beach Hanukkah Attack

In Australia, a father and son carried out a violent attack at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach, killing women and children. The attack targeted a religious gathering and was conducted by a small family unit rather than an organized terrorist cell.

This incident reinforces the current threat model involving ideologically motivated violence against religious communities and highlights the continued prevalence of lone actor or small-unit attacks requiring minimal planning or external coordination.

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II. Corroborating Domestic Incidents

(Contextual Validation)

The following incidents are not intelligence drivers. They provide real-world context that aligns with and supports the intelligence picture described above.

A. Washington, DC National Guard Shooting

An Afghan national who entered the United States during the 2021 Afghanistan evacuation carried out a targeted shooting against National Guard personnel in Washington, DC. One Guardsman was killed and another wounded. The incident involved a deliberate attack on uniformed service members.

B. East Coast Law Enforcement Shootout

In a separate East Coast incident, an Afghan national who entered the United States during the evacuation was involved in an armed confrontation with police that escalated into a shootout. The incident demonstrated willingness to engage law enforcement with lethal force.

C. Southern California Church Reconnaissance Incident

A church in Southern California reported suspicious activity involving multiple individuals conducting surveillance-style behavior on church property. Observed actions included photography and video recording of the facility, inconsistent statements during contact, and initial claims of limited English proficiency.

Law enforcement responded, documented the incident, and referred the matter to the Joint Terrorism Task Force. Independent confirmation established that the individuals involved entered the United States during the Afghanistan evacuation. This incident is directly relevant due to its church setting and the presence of pre-attack indicators.

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III. Analytic Assessment

The current threat environment affecting public gatherings is assessed as elevated and accelerating, though fragmented. There is no indication of centralized coordination across these incidents.

Most Likely Threat Scenario

The most likely form of attack affecting churches or public gatherings is lone actor or very small cell violence. Likely methods include:

• Firearms attacks

• Stabbing or edged weapon attacks

• Vehicle ramming

• Improvised explosive devices

• Combination attacks using more than one method

These attacks typically require minimal planning, limited resources, and can occur with little or no warning.

Least Likely but Not Discounted

Coordinated, state-sponsored, or multi-team terrorist operations are assessed as less likely in the current environment. While these scenarios should not drive daily posture, they cannot be entirely dismissed given ongoing global instability.

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IV. How Churches Should Interpret This Information

This assessment is provided to inform awareness, not to create fear or urgency-driven decision making. An elevated threat environment does not require churches to restrict access, cancel events, or alter their mission.

Preparedness and welcome are not opposing concepts. Churches can remain open and inviting while maintaining quiet readiness and discernment.

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V. Church Posture and Operational Guidance

Churches should continue to operate as places of worship, warmth, and community. Christmas services often bring new and infrequent worshipers seeking to celebrate the birth of Christ. That openness should remain unchanged.

Security and safety team members should function as enhanced greeters, not gatekeepers.

Key posture principles include:

• Warm, confident engagement with all attendees

• Visible presence without intimidation

• Natural conversation and early engagement when behavior feels off

• Readiness to act if necessary, without projecting suspicion

Churches should not adopt a bunker mentality. The objective is early detection and calm response while preserving a welcoming environment.

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VI. Biblical Perspective: Discernment and Wisdom

Scripture emphasizes discernment and wisdom as gifts from God, given to be used faithfully.

“The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.”
Proverbs 22:3

Discernment is not fear and it is not suspicion of everyone. It is the ability to recognize when something does not belong and to act wisely without panic.

“If any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask God, who gives generously to all without reproach, and it will be given him.”
James 1:5

God equips His people with discernment so they may steward and protect what He has entrusted to them while remaining faithful to their calling to love, welcome, and serve others.

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VII. Outlook

The threat environment affecting public gatherings is expected to remain elevated through the Christmas and New Year period. No immediate change in posture is recommended.

Calm awareness, disciplined observation, and faithful discernment remain the most effective response. Additional updates will be provided if credible, actionable intelligence emerges.