Christmas Services and the Current Threat Environment
An Intelligence Briefing for Churches
Threat Intelligence Briefing
Christmas Celebrations, Holiday Services, and Related Mass Gatherings
Scope
This briefing assesses potential threats and hazards relevant to Christmas celebrations and related winter holiday events, with emphasis on church services and other publicly accessible gatherings occurring from mid December through early January. This assessment is informed by multiple Joint Regional Intelligence Centers and recent seasonal threat reporting.
Key Judgments
No specific, credible threat is identified at this time for Christmas services or celebrations.
Likely (Elevated Threat): Opportunistic violence by lone offenders remains the most likely attack risk, often with little to no warning, and often focused on publicly accessible targets with perceived lower security.
Likely (Elevated Threat): Disruptive threats against churches, including hoax bomb threats and swatting style calls, are expected to increase during the holiday period, creating panic, disruption, and strain on emergency response resources.
Likely (Elevated Threat): Mass gatherings tied to holiday events remain attractive targets for individuals motivated by extremist ideology, personal grievance, or a desire for notoriety.
Possible (Moderate Threat): Online calls for violence and extremist propaganda may contribute to the mobilization of individuals toward holiday season targets, including churches and symbolic gatherings.
Threat Environment
Multiple regional assessments judge that, even without a known specific plot, the winter holiday period increases risk because it reliably produces predictable times, locations, and large crowds. These events carry symbolic value, especially religious services, and often involve temporary setups or seasonal activities that naturally reduce baseline security.
The dominant risk is not a coordinated campaign. The dominant risk is a lone offender selecting a soft target and acting quickly, or criminal actors using hoax threats to create disruption and panic.
What This Means for Churches
Most Likely Threats to Plan Around
Hoax threat calls and emails, including bomb threats and active shooter threats intended to disrupt services and draw emergency response.
Lone offender violence at publicly accessible areas, including entry points, lobbies, parking lots, and overflow spaces.
Vehicle based attacks during peak arrival and dismissal times, particularly where pedestrian flow is close to vehicle access points.
Less Likely, Higher Consequence
A planned attack timed to a high attendance service or holiday event, executed with simple methods and minimal warning.
Church Recommendations
Before the Service Window
Establish a clear threat intake process with a primary and secondary point of contact, simple documentation, and defined thresholds for immediate law enforcement notification.
Review bomb threat and active shooter hoax procedures so staff and volunteers are not improvising under pressure.
Coordinate with local law enforcement ahead of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day services, especially if hosting multiple services or overflow seating.
Day of Service
Maintain a visible security presence at primary entrances and in main lobby areas during arrival and dismissal periods. Visibility supports deterrence and early problem recognition.
Reduce crowd vulnerability outside by separating pedestrian gathering areas from vehicle traffic when feasible, using existing barriers, cones, or controlled traffic flow.
Tighten access control to children’s areas by limiting entry points, verifying pickups, and ensuring staff understand who has authority to deny access.
If You Receive a Threat Call
Treat every threat seriously at initial contact, document details carefully, and notify law enforcement promptly. Hoax threats are common, but they cannot be assumed in real time.
Avoid broadcasting details to the congregation in ways that cause panic. Move people calmly and deliberately, and ensure communication comes from designated leadership.
Suspicious Activity Reporting
Encourage staff and security volunteers to report behavior reasonably indicative of pre operational planning or targeted surveillance through established local reporting channels. Early reporting remains one of the most effective prevention measures during seasonal threat periods.
What To Watch For
Use these indicators as triggers for increased attention and early intervention:
Unusual interest in service schedules, security procedures, or children’s areas
Repeated attempts to access restricted spaces or test boundaries
Unattended bags or items placed near dense crowd areas
Vehicles loitering, circling, or positioning unusually near pedestrian flows
Escalating agitation, fixation, or grievance driven behavior at entrances or inside common areas
Bottom Line
Multiple Joint Regional Intelligence Centers assess that while no specific, credible threat is identified at this time, the Christmas season presents a heightened threat environment where lone offender violence and disruptive hoax threats remain the most likely risks to churches and other holiday gatherings.
Dear Keith:
I have watched what has happened to young Christian women in Europe on multiple New Years’s Eves. They gather (usually with other women) in various public places (town squares, historic plazas, iconic parks) to welcome in the new year with long-established traditions.
About 15 years ago I started to read stories in the American press about assaults (groping, shoving, yelling sexual insults) directed at these European women. Always by roving groups of male foreign nationals.
My memory is that these incidents would start in smaller cities (I remember Swedish and German locales in the beginning) and then move (over the years) to much bigger urban centers.
With a new mayor being sworn in on New Year’s Day in New York City, do you have any elevated security concerns for American women attending the annual Times Square celebration on New Year’s Eve? I do.